Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-09 02:42:13 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 4A1DE804CAB5D42CB52A5B6E06823268AFEFA24A11AFE74E38360952E1DCDBA0
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details