Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-09 03:37:36 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 48057404BC538DBD056EFE4D53DC43E27F5149B26F23E31C222116642784CEE5
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details