Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 18:56:31 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 436F1F7D58E8A3D294A44D936437BAEEFE90662AF5A07EA4D61ED11B2C624632
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details