Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 23:36:40 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 425F733087305B301E1CD0D75DAA41E8AEA9E1C7A2C0D1544898C667A88B9F95
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details