Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 09:24:24 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 3E798CA51CB1A9C4AC6E589CE9E0695F781FDF4861DACC8950201622A58B841C
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details