Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 22:54:53 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 3878777EF15905828A9C8C22B34D6692DC83F07B8CB100A383FC5EF2AD023C56
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details