Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 03:25:47 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 37D00754802EDA49570FE8C03CFD4140E27ECB0B509AC9A73F7D240C29D43496
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details