Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 08:15:17 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 3271419A65639FEF4243DB4142D50D8BAF394AD16CD19DAF796C1322CA8C69AA
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details