Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-09 00:14:38 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 32066CFCD62EEFF2DB2DC13EDDF8FD1AAF2819BFA771F463AEE12E32C919656A
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details