Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 11:49:38 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 29AF34E9EB9776E5719E3AD1D5AE6FBDE803ED5D39697357089EB842A2B334B1
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details