Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 07:45:08 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 262DD5D929665E638AD1D4A9E175DC586F7A2D344D4F31B993285AB03B8DA145
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details