Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 15:07:53 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 25CB7FA56CEC28A4668240402037EFECCF7611D2A086DD95D198F01BAB2D3DF0
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details