Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 22:16:16 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 227A1A195A32347D97EEA2B0E70C73171827676C8EF84C271DC1D3B8D37DD289
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details