Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-09 09:50:50 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 2247818141B7EB2BC123FEA415C5B82F1F51F2F7D28A74B19C75DD71CBC34A6D
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details