Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 20:14:16 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 21BC60C8FAC0ACF90367FCEF73960F11B2B84A2D28BE4A054EA5C70824D968C9
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details