Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 04:24:53 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 1C2A841434B8EE66E9B8F4B09E5617F7F1DF2210DD5F37BDA1A21FDB60D4186D
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details