Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-09 16:10:32 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 1BABC96CB774F790C8866E5B194A5D1CDF2665BEBB7B6CE383C57A04102A60B3
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details