Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 20:48:39 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 18A877DDD7DDE7F33F85EF996456C492B7823C3A6DCC4EA0FBF7C5F1988A4A7B
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details