Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-09 21:00:52 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 144A4D709255E1ABFFF9F3E87E8BF0B97D7E087AE39C12C4918F996D86E35E8F
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details