Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 19:01:19 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 130781F70A8BC86154B91F27900C81180EA1ACB6490F3E70DBCE18CB69C331C8
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details