Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 14:44:52 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 0EA42168BABBF141582CD87BA42E5F31B2D50948F926AC9262ED6C0CC9A98055
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details