Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 23:20:51 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 09AE73946AB32F4C78F8F399EF60E2DDD4D5321F24F6CCA17C05F7A5B042F3DB
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details