Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 22:41:15 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 08F26988144E622C89C931EED95AAADC756F91EA3EB2A9FF67D9FAD28E6C6042
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details