Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 18:44:14 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 03573D11038E892466E011752E8F04A05C85B253D4AA85AC8B1D982B0B03E81C
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details