Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-09 04:06:17 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 0200DD938EDE54457AE80C5BBCED3EB4988A8D3A9BE5C86F731A17BF0ACFBF7A
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details