Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-09 12:50:36 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 0015E9ABB430FD35D8C83FAF2AE71A0D6A7025782ACB9962DBD3FEB272314601
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details