Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-12 00:35:07 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: EF6DA21E1DFD8589107FE531A974D712C4EC1A7208B9475682799DF17CBDF4C2
Participant Details
Original Note:
Misleading. The depicted Silver Bulletin Electoral College Win probabilities of Trump (68.4%) and Harris (30.8%) are false. As of 3rd Oct 2024, the Silver Bulletin probability for a Harris EC Win is 57%, which also implies that the probability of a Trump Win won't exceed 43%. https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
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