Birdwatch Archive

Birdwatch Note Rating

2024-10-11 01:49:54 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL

Rated by Participant: BCA2B233F7497B863C6B08CAB2812E8353A892EDC7ADE5FB8A3CAC07A86A3944
Participant Details

Original Note:

Misleading. The depicted Silver Bulletin Electoral College Win probabilities of Trump (68.4%) and Harris (30.8%) are false. As of 3rd Oct 2024, the Silver Bulletin probability for a Harris EC Win is 57%, which also implies that the probability of a Trump Win won't exceed 43%. https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

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