Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-04 11:55:17 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 7BA816862AE3710B8CD0C55E4706472FCD7680B4125C7D1F9A507EB31D1C455C
Participant Details
Original Note:
Misleading. The depicted Silver Bulletin Electoral College Win probabilities of Trump (68.4%) and Harris (30.8%) are false. As of 3rd Oct 2024, the Silver Bulletin probability for a Harris EC Win is 57%, which also implies that the probability of a Trump Win won't exceed 43%. https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
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