Birdwatch Note
2024-03-11 09:14:40 UTC - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
統計の基本を知らない人が陥りやすい前後即因果の誤謬の典型例です https://medical.jiji.com/topics/1476 4分割表の概念を理解していれば分かることですが「AがBの前に観測された」ことはAがBの前兆であることを意味しません．AはBが起きないときにも生じているかもしれないし，BはAが無いときにも生じているかもしれないからです https://www.nsspirt-cashf2.com/ba/quadrants/ 統計的に有意な関連があることを示す，提案手法ではランダムな予想よりも有意に警告出来ることを示すなど，一般に科学的に妥当と考えられる評価方法は様々にありますが，１ケースを示しても証拠にならないことは前述の通り自明です https://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/36_39-46orihara.pdf
Written by 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA
Participant Details
Original Tweet
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All Information
- ID - 1767116924293652610
- noteId - 1767116924293652610
- participantId -
- noteAuthorParticipantId - 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA Participant Details
- createdAtMillis - 1710148480854
- tweetId - 1767093212559343928
- classification - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
- believable -
- harmful -
- validationDifficulty -
- misleadingOther - 0
- misleadingFactualError - 1
- misleadingManipulatedMedia - 0
- misleadingOutdatedInformation - 0
- misleadingMissingImportantContext - 0
- misleadingUnverifiedClaimAsFact - 1
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- trustworthySources - 1
- summary
- 統計の基本を知らない人が陥りやすい前後即因果の誤謬の典型例です https://medical.jiji.com/topics/1476 4分割表の概念を理解していれば分かることですが「AがBの前に観測された」ことはAがBの前兆であることを意味しません．AはBが起きないときにも生じているかもしれないし，BはAが無いときにも生じているかもしれないからです https://www.nsspirt-cashf2.com/ba/quadrants/ 統計的に有意な関連があることを示す，提案手法ではランダムな予想よりも有意に警告出来ることを示すなど，一般に科学的に妥当と考えられる評価方法は様々にありますが，１ケースを示しても証拠にならないことは前述の通り自明です https://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/36_39-46orihara.pdf
Note Status History
| createdAt | timestampMillisOfFirstNonNMRStatus | firstNonNMRStatus | timestampMillisOfCurrentStatus | currentStatus | timestampMillisOfLatestNonNMRStatus | mostRecentNonNMRStatus | participantId |
| 2024-03-11 09:14:40 UTC (1710148480854) |
2024-03-11 15:01:10 UTC (1710169270750) |
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL | 2024-03-12 02:22:52 UTC (1710210172014) |
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL | 2024-03-11 15:01:10 UTC (1710169270750) |
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL |
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