Birdwatch Note
2024-03-01 02:26:36 UTC - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
予測で重要なのは物理的あるいは統計的に十分な根拠を示すことですが，本投稿はそうした根拠が全く無いデマで，数週間前から外れ続けている東京や日本海側の予想を当たるまで繰り返しているだけです https://megalodon.jp/2024-0218-0013-35/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1758306815811486202 https://megalodon.jp/2024-0216-0921-34/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1757774720534012178 大地震発生前の「日本の地震リスク」は極めて低い値で，根拠がないので当然ですが予測能力が全くないことは明らかです https://megalodon.jp/2024-0112-1157-30/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1741117647691927851 大地震が100％起きると言ったときでさえ何もありませんでした https://web.archive.org/web/20221202065302/https://twitter.com/earthquakejapan/status/1598359845446352896 震源を限定せず広範囲にするのも当たるまで投稿を繰り返すのも，まぐれ当たりを狙うデマの常套手段です https://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/010-017_40Orihara.pdf
Written by 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA
Participant Details
Original Tweet
Tweet embedding is no longer reliably available, due to the platform's instability (in terms of both technology and policy). If the Tweet still exists, you can view it here: https://twitter.com/foo_bar/status/1763380073942413687
Please note, though, that you may need to have your own Twitter account to access that page. I am currently exploring options for archiving Tweet data in a post-API context.
All Information
- ID - 1763390349228319192
- noteId - 1763390349228319192
- participantId -
- noteAuthorParticipantId - 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA Participant Details
- createdAtMillis - 1709259996122
- tweetId - 1763380073942413687
- classification - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
- believable -
- harmful -
- validationDifficulty -
- misleadingOther - 0
- misleadingFactualError - 0
- misleadingManipulatedMedia - 0
- misleadingOutdatedInformation - 0
- misleadingMissingImportantContext - 1
- misleadingUnverifiedClaimAsFact - 0
- misleadingSatire - 0
- notMisleadingOther - 0
- notMisleadingFactuallyCorrect - 0
- notMisleadingOutdatedButNotWhenWritten - 0
- notMisleadingClearlySatire - 0
- notMisleadingPersonalOpinion - 0
- trustworthySources - 1
- summary
- 予測で重要なのは物理的あるいは統計的に十分な根拠を示すことですが，本投稿はそうした根拠が全く無いデマで，数週間前から外れ続けている東京や日本海側の予想を当たるまで繰り返しているだけです https://megalodon.jp/2024-0218-0013-35/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1758306815811486202 https://megalodon.jp/2024-0216-0921-34/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1757774720534012178 大地震発生前の「日本の地震リスク」は極めて低い値で，根拠がないので当然ですが予測能力が全くないことは明らかです https://megalodon.jp/2024-0112-1157-30/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1741117647691927851 大地震が100％起きると言ったときでさえ何もありませんでした https://web.archive.org/web/20221202065302/https://twitter.com/earthquakejapan/status/1598359845446352896 震源を限定せず広範囲にするのも当たるまで投稿を繰り返すのも，まぐれ当たりを狙うデマの常套手段です https://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/010-017_40Orihara.pdf
Note Status History
| createdAt | timestampMillisOfFirstNonNMRStatus | firstNonNMRStatus | timestampMillisOfCurrentStatus | currentStatus | timestampMillisOfLatestNonNMRStatus | mostRecentNonNMRStatus | participantId |
| 2024-03-01 02:26:36 UTC (1709259996122) |
2024-03-01 08:16:20 UTC (1709280980331) |
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL | 2024-03-07 12:28:42 UTC (1709814522945) |
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL | 2024-03-01 08:16:20 UTC (1709280980331) |
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL |
Note Ratings
| rated at | rated by | |
| 2024-03-06 19:45:20 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-05 08:31:21 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-04 19:07:08 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-02 20:07:36 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-02 07:40:05 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 22:33:40 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 17:24:09 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 15:58:09 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 11:54:38 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 11:33:33 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 11:00:49 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 09:18:18 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 06:16:31 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 06:09:51 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 02:26:34 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 02:09:54 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 00:14:34 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 23:15:45 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 23:15:17 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 23:04:11 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 22:52:33 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 22:45:00 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 22:38:14 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 22:25:00 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 22:23:29 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 22:08:33 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:46:34 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:33:38 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:23:21 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:20:37 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:18:02 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:16:57 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:14:49 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:06:23 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:05:06 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:04:44 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:04:39 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:03:29 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:59:23 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:55:33 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:54:16 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:53:00 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:52:51 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:52:21 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:52:04 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:51:31 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:51:00 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:50:47 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:49:35 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:48:40 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:47:47 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:46:12 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-07 05:17:42 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-02 17:18:56 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-02 05:44:24 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-02 04:17:28 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 21:25:05 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 20:34:33 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 17:57:28 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 17:31:20 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 17:05:23 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 16:28:32 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 14:27:15 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 12:47:53 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 11:49:46 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 11:35:32 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 11:03:48 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 11:02:32 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 10:57:33 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 05:56:41 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 05:06:15 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 05:00:08 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 00:43:39 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 00:04:24 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 23:39:03 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 23:27:09 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 23:20:08 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 23:02:09 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 22:18:43 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 22:12:44 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 22:04:04 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:33:49 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:28:52 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:27:47 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:18:05 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:17:33 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:15:12 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:14:11 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:12:10 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:07:35 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:05:41 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:02:56 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:02:39 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:57:10 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:56:55 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:54:32 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:53:48 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:50:33 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:49:12 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:48:31 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:47:51 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:47:19 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:45:44 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:44:33 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:41:24 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:40:24 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:30:08 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-02 00:12:19 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 21:38:51 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 21:05:08 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 17:01:58 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 16:56:11 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 16:55:52 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 16:01:38 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 15:39:04 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 12:44:09 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 12:24:41 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 11:45:50 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 11:45:39 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 09:29:46 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 08:44:10 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 08:31:41 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 04:23:41 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 01:22:03 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 01:02:00 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 00:36:51 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 00:34:54 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 23:16:16 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 22:11:37 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 22:09:57 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 22:01:47 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 22:01:15 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 22:00:30 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:54:16 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:46:58 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:45:51 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:43:10 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:42:47 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:41:55 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:28:21 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:27:35 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:27:31 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:27:23 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:26:54 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:24:16 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:23:41 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:11:41 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:04:09 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:03:35 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 21:02:25 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:58:49 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:58:47 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:58:24 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:56:02 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:56:01 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:54:48 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:53:02 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:51:31 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:51:05 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:50:50 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:50:22 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:50:17 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:48:43 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:48:42 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:48:18 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:48:05 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:43:53 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:43:47 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:43:17 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:42:51 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-29 20:41:00 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-01 16:16:49 -0600 | Rating Details |