Birdwatch Archive

Birdwatch Note

2023-11-10 06:48:02 UTC - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING

確率の計算に使ったデータや計算方法の出典がありません．つまり全く根拠がありません． 本画像のように場所を広範囲にしたり，地震の規模を書かないのは，以下の文献にあるニセ地震予知の典型的な特徴で，嘘を当たりやすくするトリックです． http://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/010-017_40Orihara.pdf 例えばM5クラスの地震は数日に1度程度起きるので，規模を書かなければ頻発するM6以下の地震を使って当たったことにしやすいわけです（東日本は地震が多いので，余計にこじつけやすい）． https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/kishou/know/faq/faq7.html#9 過去には100%地震が起きると言ったときですら何もありませんでした．根拠がないので当然ですが，偶然以上の実績もありません． https://twitter.com/earthquakejapan/status/1598359845446352896

Written by 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA
Participant Details

Original Tweet

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All Information

  • ID - 1722868700947309024
  • noteId - 1722868700947309024
  • participantId -
  • noteAuthorParticipantId - 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA Participant Details
  • createdAtMillis - 1699598882316
  • tweetId - 1722782674752827677
  • classification - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
  • believable -
  • harmful -
  • validationDifficulty -
  • misleadingOther - 0
  • misleadingFactualError - 0
  • misleadingManipulatedMedia - 0
  • misleadingOutdatedInformation - 0
  • misleadingMissingImportantContext - 0
  • misleadingUnverifiedClaimAsFact - 1
  • misleadingSatire - 0
  • notMisleadingOther - 0
  • notMisleadingFactuallyCorrect - 0
  • notMisleadingOutdatedButNotWhenWritten - 0
  • notMisleadingClearlySatire - 0
  • notMisleadingPersonalOpinion - 0
  • trustworthySources - 1
  • summary
    • 確率の計算に使ったデータや計算方法の出典がありません．つまり全く根拠がありません． 本画像のように場所を広範囲にしたり，地震の規模を書かないのは，以下の文献にあるニセ地震予知の典型的な特徴で，嘘を当たりやすくするトリックです． http://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/010-017_40Orihara.pdf 例えばM5クラスの地震は数日に1度程度起きるので，規模を書かなければ頻発するM6以下の地震を使って当たったことにしやすいわけです（東日本は地震が多いので，余計にこじつけやすい）． https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/kishou/know/faq/faq7.html#9 過去には100%地震が起きると言ったときですら何もありませんでした．根拠がないので当然ですが，偶然以上の実績もありません． https://twitter.com/earthquakejapan/status/1598359845446352896

Note Status History

createdAt timestampMillisOfFirstNonNMRStatus firstNonNMRStatus timestampMillisOfCurrentStatus currentStatus timestampMillisOfLatestNonNMRStatus mostRecentNonNMRStatus participantId
2023-11-10 06:48:02 UTC
(1699598882316)		 2023-11-10 09:46:48 UTC
(1699609608172)		 CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL 2023-11-11 03:16:55 UTC
(1699672615357)		 CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL 2023-11-10 09:46:48 UTC
(1699609608172)		 CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL

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