Birdwatch Archive

Birdwatch Note

2023-03-14 09:42:28 UTC - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING

There are decades of research demonstrating that earthquake predictions perform no better than background probabilities. https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-you-predict-earthquakes https://pnsn.org/outreach/faq/earthquake-prediction https://scienceexchange.caltech.edu/topics/earthquakes/earthquakes-probabilities https://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2019/predicting-next-big-earthquake/ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00685-y https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/srl/article/89/2A/577/525827/Do-Large-Magnitude-8-Global-Earthquakes-Occur-on https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-position-moon-or-planets-affect-seismicity-are-there-more-earthquakes-morningin-eveningat Seismologists have posted results, data, and code testing these claims specifically and found they do not surpass background probabilities: https://twitter.com/bwcphd/status/1633897308499902464 https://twitter.com/PierreSeismo/status/1634593771731189760

Written by 7E8DD68BF742E1F4F003D272944E35B694C57075F3C02192EFAFC2E7FBEDB021
Participant Details

All Information

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• noteId - 1635577123267280897
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• noteAuthorParticipantId - 7E8DD68BF742E1F4F003D272944E35B694C57075F3C02192EFAFC2E7FBEDB021 Participant Details
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• tweetId - 1635560643066576899
• classification - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
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• summary
• There are decades of research demonstrating that earthquake predictions perform no better than background probabilities. https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-you-predict-earthquakes https://pnsn.org/outreach/faq/earthquake-prediction https://scienceexchange.caltech.edu/topics/earthquakes/earthquakes-probabilities https://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2019/predicting-next-big-earthquake/ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00685-y https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/srl/article/89/2A/577/525827/Do-Large-Magnitude-8-Global-Earthquakes-Occur-on https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-position-moon-or-planets-affect-seismicity-are-there-more-earthquakes-morningin-eveningat Seismologists have posted results, data, and code testing these claims specifically and found they do not surpass background probabilities: https://twitter.com/bwcphd/status/1633897308499902464 https://twitter.com/PierreSeismo/status/1634593771731189760