Birdwatch Note
2023-03-13 14:39:55 UTC - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
There are decades of research demonstrating that earthquake predictions perform no better than background probabilities. https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-you-predict-earthquakes https://pnsn.org/outreach/faq/earthquake-prediction https://scienceexchange.caltech.edu/topics/earthquakes/earthquakes-probabilities https://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2019/predicting-next-big-earthquake/ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00685-y https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/srl/article/89/2A/577/525827/Do-Large-Magnitude-8-Global-Earthquakes-Occur-on https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-position-moon-or-planets-affect-seismicity-are-there-more-earthquakes-morningin-eveningat Seismologists have posted results, data, and code testing these claims specifically and found they do not surpass background probabilities: https://twitter.com/bwcphd/status/1633897308499902464 https://twitter.com/PierreSeismo/status/1634593771731189760
Written by 114D3959B7A1FAF013A9773725D3AC9653F490590C8B76CB7CE232B010DE900E
Participant Details
Original Tweet
Tweet embedding is no longer reliably available, due to the platform's instability (in terms of both technology and policy). If the Tweet still exists, you can view it here: https://twitter.com/foo_bar/status/1635225704483942400
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All Information
- ID - 1635289589618475010
- noteId - 1635289589618475010
- participantId - 114D3959B7A1FAF013A9773725D3AC9653F490590C8B76CB7CE232B010DE900E
- noteAuthorParticipantId -
- createdAtMillis - 1678718395034
- tweetId - 1635225704483942400
- classification - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
- believable -
- harmful -
- validationDifficulty -
- misleadingOther - 0
- misleadingFactualError - 1
- misleadingManipulatedMedia - 0
- misleadingOutdatedInformation - 0
- misleadingMissingImportantContext - 1
- misleadingUnverifiedClaimAsFact - 1
- misleadingSatire - 0
- notMisleadingOther - 0
- notMisleadingFactuallyCorrect - 0
- notMisleadingOutdatedButNotWhenWritten - 0
- notMisleadingClearlySatire - 0
- notMisleadingPersonalOpinion - 0
- trustworthySources - 1
- summary
- There are decades of research demonstrating that earthquake predictions perform no better than background probabilities. https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-you-predict-earthquakes https://pnsn.org/outreach/faq/earthquake-prediction https://scienceexchange.caltech.edu/topics/earthquakes/earthquakes-probabilities https://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2019/predicting-next-big-earthquake/ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00685-y https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/srl/article/89/2A/577/525827/Do-Large-Magnitude-8-Global-Earthquakes-Occur-on https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-position-moon-or-planets-affect-seismicity-are-there-more-earthquakes-morningin-eveningat Seismologists have posted results, data, and code testing these claims specifically and found they do not surpass background probabilities: https://twitter.com/bwcphd/status/1633897308499902464 https://twitter.com/PierreSeismo/status/1634593771731189760
Note Status History
createdAt | timestampMillisOfFirstNonNMRStatus | firstNonNMRStatus | timestampMillisOfCurrentStatus | currentStatus | timestampMillisOfLatestNonNMRStatus | mostRecentNonNMRStatus | participantId |
2023-03-13 14:39:55 UTC (1678718395034) |
1969-12-31 23:59:59 UTC (-1) |
2023-03-15 05:09:59 UTC (1678856999448) |
NEEDS_MORE_RATINGS | 1969-12-31 23:59:59 UTC (-1) |
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