Birdwatch Note
2024-12-20 16:12:19 UTC - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
元ネタでは高齢者の生存者から３回以上接種者が除外されています https://x.com/JINKOUZOUKA_jp/status/1844296818991170008 2回接種高齢者の3回接種率、２回と３回の間隔、2020年の高齢者死亡率から計算すると2回止まり高齢者の百%近くが3回接種機会到達前に無関係死亡したと推定できます https://www.city.hamamatsu.shizuoka.jp/odpf/opendata/v1.html?x=221309_covid19_vaccination_rate_ex https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/kenkou_iryou/kenkou/kekkaku-kansenshou/yobou-sesshu/syukeihou_00002.html https://data.vrs.digital.go.jp/vaccination/opendata/2024-04-09/summary_by_date.csv https://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/jinkou/geppo/nengai20/index.html つまり、2回接種高齢者のうち3回接種機会到達前に無関係死亡した人以外がほぼ3回接種した結果、2回止まり高齢者集団のうちの生存者の比率が極端に小さくなり、無関係死亡率が百%近くなっただけです。 このような３回以上接種者を除外する恣意的選別が主原因で、ロット限定によるサンプルサイズの縮小と確率的バラツキが副原因です
Written by EE7192EF0B1C47D8A3430C3E070DA2A0BFAA58717F9133404318E9D7666B1A00
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All Information
- ID - 1870140180814012428
- noteId - 1870140180814012428
- participantId -
- noteAuthorParticipantId - EE7192EF0B1C47D8A3430C3E070DA2A0BFAA58717F9133404318E9D7666B1A00 Participant Details
- createdAtMillis - 1734711139288
- tweetId - 1870019428483834164
- classification - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
- believable -
- harmful -
- validationDifficulty -
- misleadingOther - 0
- misleadingFactualError - 1
- misleadingManipulatedMedia - 0
- misleadingOutdatedInformation - 0
- misleadingMissingImportantContext - 1
- misleadingUnverifiedClaimAsFact - 1
- misleadingSatire - 0
- notMisleadingOther - 0
- notMisleadingFactuallyCorrect - 0
- notMisleadingOutdatedButNotWhenWritten - 0
- notMisleadingClearlySatire - 0
- notMisleadingPersonalOpinion - 0
- trustworthySources - 1
- summary
- 元ネタでは高齢者の生存者から３回以上接種者が除外されています https://x.com/JINKOUZOUKA_jp/status/1844296818991170008 2回接種高齢者の3回接種率、２回と３回の間隔、2020年の高齢者死亡率から計算すると2回止まり高齢者の百%近くが3回接種機会到達前に無関係死亡したと推定できます https://www.city.hamamatsu.shizuoka.jp/odpf/opendata/v1.html?x=221309_covid19_vaccination_rate_ex https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/kenkou_iryou/kenkou/kekkaku-kansenshou/yobou-sesshu/syukeihou_00002.html https://data.vrs.digital.go.jp/vaccination/opendata/2024-04-09/summary_by_date.csv https://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/jinkou/geppo/nengai20/index.html つまり、2回接種高齢者のうち3回接種機会到達前に無関係死亡した人以外がほぼ3回接種した結果、2回止まり高齢者集団のうちの生存者の比率が極端に小さくなり、無関係死亡率が百%近くなっただけです。 このような３回以上接種者を除外する恣意的選別が主原因で、ロット限定によるサンプルサイズの縮小と確率的バラツキが副原因です
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