Birdwatch Note
2024-12-11 05:30:50 UTC - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
感染疫学の研究者のシナリオ分析に関する補足です。「なにもしなければ」42万人が亡くなるという分析が出たので、何かをしました。何かは具体的には接触を減らす、マスクで接触時のウイルスの拡散を防ぐ、三密回避、などです。その結果、死者数が大きく減らせました。 https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASN4H3J87N4HULBJ003.html https://www.m3.com/news/open/iryoishin/982185 計算の概要は公開されています。 確率的に感染拡大を考えた場合、人との接触が少ないほど感染者との接触も減ります。2020年当時に推定されていた、感染者がどう次の感染者を作るかの確率などを用いると、8割接触を減らすと42万人の死者減が見込める、というのが計算結果です。 https://www.newsweekjapan.jp/stories/world/2020/06/8-39.php https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0M6gpMlssPM https://live.nicovideo.jp/watch/lv325833316
Written by 169D2EB0CE4FAED029CE904443460D0C85651746DF09A0E57E6B11180B88C5D0
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- noteAuthorParticipantId - 169D2EB0CE4FAED029CE904443460D0C85651746DF09A0E57E6B11180B88C5D0 Participant Details
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- tweetId - 1866662055127945545
- classification - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
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- summary
- 感染疫学の研究者のシナリオ分析に関する補足です。「なにもしなければ」42万人が亡くなるという分析が出たので、何かをしました。何かは具体的には接触を減らす、マスクで接触時のウイルスの拡散を防ぐ、三密回避、などです。その結果、死者数が大きく減らせました。 https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASN4H3J87N4HULBJ003.html https://www.m3.com/news/open/iryoishin/982185 計算の概要は公開されています。 確率的に感染拡大を考えた場合、人との接触が少ないほど感染者との接触も減ります。2020年当時に推定されていた、感染者がどう次の感染者を作るかの確率などを用いると、8割接触を減らすと42万人の死者減が見込める、というのが計算結果です。 https://www.newsweekjapan.jp/stories/world/2020/06/8-39.php https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0M6gpMlssPM https://live.nicovideo.jp/watch/lv325833316
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