Birdwatch Note
2024-11-07 05:29:35 UTC - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
元の投稿ではいつものように，地震の規模も場所も時期も非常に曖昧です https://www.instagram.com/p/DB_APbLp2EX/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA== 地震の予測は，地震の規模・場所・時期を一つ以上曖昧にすると容易にまぐれ当たりします．そのためネット上の地震予測情報を見る際は 1️⃣条件の曖昧な予測でないか 2️⃣頻繁に投稿していないか 3️⃣全部で予測はどれだけあり，地震はどれだけあるか（≒どれだけ外したか） といった，根拠のない予測でも当たっているように錯覚してしまう要素に注意が必要です https://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/010-017_40Orihara.pdf また，被害のない規模を含む予測は無意味と考えられています（例えば下記文献でl=L,f=0のときE<0となり，利益が負になる） https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/zisin1948/30/2/30_2_179/_pdf/-char/ja
Written by 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA
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- ID - 1854395755139838270
- noteId - 1854395755139838270
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- noteAuthorParticipantId - 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA Participant Details
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- tweetId - 1854329887588544918
- classification - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
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- summary
- 元の投稿ではいつものように，地震の規模も場所も時期も非常に曖昧です https://www.instagram.com/p/DB_APbLp2EX/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA== 地震の予測は，地震の規模・場所・時期を一つ以上曖昧にすると容易にまぐれ当たりします．そのためネット上の地震予測情報を見る際は 1️⃣条件の曖昧な予測でないか 2️⃣頻繁に投稿していないか 3️⃣全部で予測はどれだけあり，地震はどれだけあるか（≒どれだけ外したか） といった，根拠のない予測でも当たっているように錯覚してしまう要素に注意が必要です https://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/010-017_40Orihara.pdf また，被害のない規模を含む予測は無意味と考えられています（例えば下記文献でl=L,f=0のときE<0となり，利益が負になる） https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/zisin1948/30/2/30_2_179/_pdf/-char/ja
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