Birdwatch Note
2024-10-28 02:04:48 UTC - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
実績も根拠もないデマです 能登半島地震の直前に根拠なくリスクが低いと投稿し https://megalodon.jp/2024-0112-1157-30/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1741117647691927851 逆に必ず大地震が来ると言ったときに何も起きませんでした https://web.archive.org/web/20221202065302/https://twitter.com/earthquakejapan/status/1598359845446352896 https://megalodon.jp/2024-0229-2119-18/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1763047375902237002 これは，全国を警戒エリアにして予測を頻繁に投稿することで，根拠のない予測を当たりやすくするトリックに過ぎないためです https://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/010-017_40Orihara.pdf 地震は規模が小さいほど頻発します https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/kishou/know/faq/faq7.html#9 M4以上の地震は毎日何度も起きるので，規模を書かずに大半の地域で高い確率を書けば，後からどうとでもこじつけできるという仕組みです
Written by 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA
Participant Details
Original Tweet
Tweet embedding is no longer reliably available, due to the platform's instability (in terms of both technology and policy). If the Tweet still exists, you can view it here: https://twitter.com/foo_bar/status/1850537502295081067
Please note, though, that you may need to have your own Twitter account to access that page. I am currently exploring options for archiving Tweet data in a post-API context.
All Information
- ID - 1850720338302374361
- noteId - 1850720338302374361
- participantId -
- noteAuthorParticipantId - 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA Participant Details
- createdAtMillis - 1730081088029
- tweetId - 1850537502295081067
- classification - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
- believable -
- harmful -
- validationDifficulty -
- misleadingOther - 0
- misleadingFactualError - 0
- misleadingManipulatedMedia - 0
- misleadingOutdatedInformation - 0
- misleadingMissingImportantContext - 1
- misleadingUnverifiedClaimAsFact - 1
- misleadingSatire - 0
- notMisleadingOther - 0
- notMisleadingFactuallyCorrect - 0
- notMisleadingOutdatedButNotWhenWritten - 0
- notMisleadingClearlySatire - 0
- notMisleadingPersonalOpinion - 0
- trustworthySources - 1
- summary
- 実績も根拠もないデマです 能登半島地震の直前に根拠なくリスクが低いと投稿し https://megalodon.jp/2024-0112-1157-30/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1741117647691927851 逆に必ず大地震が来ると言ったときに何も起きませんでした https://web.archive.org/web/20221202065302/https://twitter.com/earthquakejapan/status/1598359845446352896 https://megalodon.jp/2024-0229-2119-18/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1763047375902237002 これは，全国を警戒エリアにして予測を頻繁に投稿することで，根拠のない予測を当たりやすくするトリックに過ぎないためです https://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/010-017_40Orihara.pdf 地震は規模が小さいほど頻発します https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/kishou/know/faq/faq7.html#9 M4以上の地震は毎日何度も起きるので，規模を書かずに大半の地域で高い確率を書けば，後からどうとでもこじつけできるという仕組みです
Note Ratings
| rated at | rated by | |
| 2024-10-27 23:39:23 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-27 23:06:01 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-27 22:22:51 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-28 01:10:34 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-27 23:09:22 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-28 00:31:10 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-27 23:04:34 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-27 21:36:39 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-28 01:12:26 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-28 00:33:25 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-27 23:51:54 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-27 22:47:09 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-28 00:33:34 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-27 23:21:30 -0500 | Rating Details |