Birdwatch Note
2024-09-26 10:14:56 UTC - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
前日の投稿と対応するとの主張は立証されていない論理の飛躍です 当該投稿では地震の規模・場所・時期のいずれも曖昧です https://x.com/kirinjisinken/status/1838603306865947029 曖昧な予測は容易にまぐれ当たりします https://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/010-017_40Orihara.pdf 前日の投稿と対応すると主張するためには，次のように自分の手法で偶然より有意に予測できることを立証する義務があります https://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/36_39-46orihara.pdf 立証されるまでその主張は事実として扱われず，立証責任は主張を展開する側にのみ存在するのが科学研究の基本です https://gijika.com/rate/dict/dictSa19.html これは通常の気象学の枠組みで説明できる大気重力波 https://www-aos.eps.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~sato-lab/research/theme02/ についても同様で，地震前に発生するメカニズムと通常の気象現象との分離手法を立証するまで根拠はありません
Written by 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA
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- ID - 1839247276423917688
- noteId - 1839247276423917688
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- noteAuthorParticipantId - 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA Participant Details
- createdAtMillis - 1727345696920
- tweetId - 1839204138409947539
- classification - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
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- summary
- 前日の投稿と対応するとの主張は立証されていない論理の飛躍です 当該投稿では地震の規模・場所・時期のいずれも曖昧です https://x.com/kirinjisinken/status/1838603306865947029 曖昧な予測は容易にまぐれ当たりします https://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/010-017_40Orihara.pdf 前日の投稿と対応すると主張するためには，次のように自分の手法で偶然より有意に予測できることを立証する義務があります https://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/36_39-46orihara.pdf 立証されるまでその主張は事実として扱われず，立証責任は主張を展開する側にのみ存在するのが科学研究の基本です https://gijika.com/rate/dict/dictSa19.html これは通常の気象学の枠組みで説明できる大気重力波 https://www-aos.eps.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~sato-lab/research/theme02/ についても同様で，地震前に発生するメカニズムと通常の気象現象との分離手法を立証するまで根拠はありません
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