Birdwatch Archive

Birdwatch Note

2024-05-08 12:20:03 UTC - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING

統計の基本を知らない場合に陥りやすい前後即因果の誤謬です https://medical.jiji.com/topics/1476 巨大地震に先行して電離層に変化があることが報告されているものの，同程度の変化は地震と関係のない要因で普段から頻繁に発生しているため，電離層の変化を見て警報を出しても99.999%は外れることがわかっています https://cais.gsi.go.jp/YOCHIREN/sympo/kicho1.pdf つまり，変動はほとんどが地震以外の要因なので，他の要因が無かったことを確認せずにこの画像を以て地震の前兆とするのは論理の飛躍で，間違った結論です

Written by 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA
Participant Details

Original Tweet

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All Information

  • ID - 1788182072034726213
  • noteId - 1788182072034726213
  • participantId -
  • noteAuthorParticipantId - 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA Participant Details
  • createdAtMillis - 1715170803447
  • tweetId - 1788152924096606305
  • classification - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
  • believable -
  • harmful -
  • validationDifficulty -
  • misleadingOther - 0
  • misleadingFactualError - 0
  • misleadingManipulatedMedia - 0
  • misleadingOutdatedInformation - 0
  • misleadingMissingImportantContext - 0
  • misleadingUnverifiedClaimAsFact - 1
  • misleadingSatire - 0
  • notMisleadingOther - 0
  • notMisleadingFactuallyCorrect - 0
  • notMisleadingOutdatedButNotWhenWritten - 0
  • notMisleadingClearlySatire - 0
  • notMisleadingPersonalOpinion - 0
  • trustworthySources - 1
  • summary
    • 統計の基本を知らない場合に陥りやすい前後即因果の誤謬です https://medical.jiji.com/topics/1476 巨大地震に先行して電離層に変化があることが報告されているものの，同程度の変化は地震と関係のない要因で普段から頻繁に発生しているため，電離層の変化を見て警報を出しても99.999%は外れることがわかっています https://cais.gsi.go.jp/YOCHIREN/sympo/kicho1.pdf つまり，変動はほとんどが地震以外の要因なので，他の要因が無かったことを確認せずにこの画像を以て地震の前兆とするのは論理の飛躍で，間違った結論です

Note Status History

createdAt timestampMillisOfFirstNonNMRStatus firstNonNMRStatus timestampMillisOfCurrentStatus currentStatus timestampMillisOfLatestNonNMRStatus mostRecentNonNMRStatus participantId
2024-05-08 12:20:03 UTC
(1715170803447)		 2024-05-09 01:26:51 UTC
(1715218011649)		 CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL 2024-05-10 03:21:20 UTC
(1715311280526)		 NEEDS_MORE_RATINGS 2024-05-09 01:26:51 UTC
(1715218011649)		 CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL

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