Birdwatch Note
2024-04-27 09:28:58 UTC - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
対応しているとするのは論理の飛躍です 元の投稿 https://twitter.com/kirinjisinken/status/1783779950233035229 https://twitter.com/kirinjisinken/status/1783787653143642267 には画像から地震を予想できる根拠（物理的or統計的な証明を行うとともに，第三者による検証・再現を可能とする情報）は含まれません 日本は地震が多いので，条件の曖昧な予想（元の投稿をまとめると全国に規模・時期が不明な予想が出ている）を毎日投稿すれば元の投稿のように根拠が無い予想でも偶然合致する場合があります https://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/010-017_40Orihara.pdf （P.13） よって，例えば次のように「ランダムに予測した場合と比較して有意差はあるか」を調べるといった客観的評価を行わずに対応したと主張するのは論理の飛躍で，立証されていない主張です https://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/36_39-46orihara.pdf
Written by 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA
Participant Details
Original Tweet
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All Information
- ID - 1784152751242629369
- noteId - 1784152751242629369
- participantId -
- noteAuthorParticipantId - 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA Participant Details
- createdAtMillis - 1714210138511
- tweetId - 1784145518568058897
- classification - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
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- summary
- 対応しているとするのは論理の飛躍です 元の投稿 https://twitter.com/kirinjisinken/status/1783779950233035229 https://twitter.com/kirinjisinken/status/1783787653143642267 には画像から地震を予想できる根拠（物理的or統計的な証明を行うとともに，第三者による検証・再現を可能とする情報）は含まれません 日本は地震が多いので，条件の曖昧な予想（元の投稿をまとめると全国に規模・時期が不明な予想が出ている）を毎日投稿すれば元の投稿のように根拠が無い予想でも偶然合致する場合があります https://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/010-017_40Orihara.pdf （P.13） よって，例えば次のように「ランダムに予測した場合と比較して有意差はあるか」を調べるといった客観的評価を行わずに対応したと主張するのは論理の飛躍で，立証されていない主張です https://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/36_39-46orihara.pdf
Note Status History
| createdAt | timestampMillisOfFirstNonNMRStatus | firstNonNMRStatus | timestampMillisOfCurrentStatus | currentStatus | timestampMillisOfLatestNonNMRStatus | mostRecentNonNMRStatus | participantId |
| 2024-04-27 09:28:58 UTC (1714210138511) |
2024-04-27 15:53:35 UTC (1714233215544) |
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL | 2024-05-01 12:35:12 UTC (1714566912495) |
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL | 2024-04-27 15:53:35 UTC (1714233215544) |
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL |
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