Birdwatch Note
2024-03-06 00:57:33 UTC - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
何ら根拠のないデマです． 予測で重要なのは物理的あるいは統計的に十分な根拠を示すことですが，本投稿はそうした根拠が全く示されていません．外れた予想を当たるまで延長しているだけです https://megalodon.jp/2024-0306-0956-59/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1764805006190887089 根拠がないので当然ですがまぐれ当たり以上の実績も無く，1月の大地震発生前の「日本の地震リスク」は極めて低い値で見逃しており，予測能力が全くないことは明らかです https://megalodon.jp/2024-0112-1157-30/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1741117647691927851 大地震が100％起きると言ったときでさえ何もありませんでした https://web.archive.org/web/20221202065302/https://twitter.com/earthquakejapan/status/1598359845446352896 https://megalodon.jp/2024-0229-2119-18/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1763047375902237002 震源を限定せず広範囲にするのも当たるまで投稿を繰り返すのも，まぐれ当たりを狙うデマの常套手段です https://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/010-017_40Orihara.pdf
Written by 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA
Participant Details
Original Tweet
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All Information
- ID - 1765179881212821890
- noteId - 1765179881212821890
- participantId -
- noteAuthorParticipantId - 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA Participant Details
- createdAtMillis - 1709686653795
- tweetId - 1765097021218689476
- classification - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
- believable -
- harmful -
- validationDifficulty -
- misleadingOther - 0
- misleadingFactualError - 0
- misleadingManipulatedMedia - 0
- misleadingOutdatedInformation - 0
- misleadingMissingImportantContext - 1
- misleadingUnverifiedClaimAsFact - 1
- misleadingSatire - 0
- notMisleadingOther - 0
- notMisleadingFactuallyCorrect - 0
- notMisleadingOutdatedButNotWhenWritten - 0
- notMisleadingClearlySatire - 0
- notMisleadingPersonalOpinion - 0
- trustworthySources - 1
- summary
- 何ら根拠のないデマです． 予測で重要なのは物理的あるいは統計的に十分な根拠を示すことですが，本投稿はそうした根拠が全く示されていません．外れた予想を当たるまで延長しているだけです https://megalodon.jp/2024-0306-0956-59/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1764805006190887089 根拠がないので当然ですがまぐれ当たり以上の実績も無く，1月の大地震発生前の「日本の地震リスク」は極めて低い値で見逃しており，予測能力が全くないことは明らかです https://megalodon.jp/2024-0112-1157-30/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1741117647691927851 大地震が100％起きると言ったときでさえ何もありませんでした https://web.archive.org/web/20221202065302/https://twitter.com/earthquakejapan/status/1598359845446352896 https://megalodon.jp/2024-0229-2119-18/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1763047375902237002 震源を限定せず広範囲にするのも当たるまで投稿を繰り返すのも，まぐれ当たりを狙うデマの常套手段です https://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/010-017_40Orihara.pdf
Note Status History
| createdAt | timestampMillisOfFirstNonNMRStatus | firstNonNMRStatus | timestampMillisOfCurrentStatus | currentStatus | timestampMillisOfLatestNonNMRStatus | mostRecentNonNMRStatus | participantId |
| 2024-03-06 00:57:33 UTC (1709686653795) |
2024-03-06 09:21:19 UTC (1709716879793) |
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL | 2024-03-07 12:28:42 UTC (1709814522945) |
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL | 2024-03-06 09:21:19 UTC (1709716879793) |
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL |
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