Birdwatch Archive

Birdwatch Note

2024-02-29 05:08:12 UTC - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING

過去にも大地震が100%起きると言ったことがありますが,その半年後の2023年5月の能登半島の地震まで何もありませんでした https://web.archive.org/web/20221202065302/https://twitter.com/earthquakejapan/status/1598359845446352896 予測で重要なのは物理的あるいは統計的に十分な根拠を示すことですが,本投稿はそうした根拠が全く無いデマで,数週間前から外れ続けている予想を当たるまで繰り返しているだけです https://megalodon.jp/2024-0218-0013-35/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1758306815811486202 https://megalodon.jp/2024-0216-0921-34/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1757774720534012178 元日の大地震発生前の予想も極めて低い値で,根拠がないので当然ですが予測能力が全くないことは明らかです https://megalodon.jp/2024-0112-1157-30/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1741117647691927851 震源を限定せず広範囲にするのも毎日投稿を繰り返すのも,まぐれ当たりを狙うデマの常套手段です https://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/010-017_40Orihara.pdf 根拠も実績も無いものを信じる意味はありません

Written by 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA
Participant Details

Original Tweet

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All Information

  • ID - 1763068631267836117
  • noteId - 1763068631267836117
  • participantId -
  • noteAuthorParticipantId - 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA Participant Details
  • createdAtMillis - 1709183292582
  • tweetId - 1763047375902237002
  • classification - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
  • believable -
  • harmful -
  • validationDifficulty -
  • misleadingOther - 0
  • misleadingFactualError - 0
  • misleadingManipulatedMedia - 0
  • misleadingOutdatedInformation - 0
  • misleadingMissingImportantContext - 1
  • misleadingUnverifiedClaimAsFact - 0
  • misleadingSatire - 0
  • notMisleadingOther - 0
  • notMisleadingFactuallyCorrect - 0
  • notMisleadingOutdatedButNotWhenWritten - 0
  • notMisleadingClearlySatire - 0
  • notMisleadingPersonalOpinion - 0
  • trustworthySources - 1
  • summary
    • 過去にも大地震が100%起きると言ったことがありますが,その半年後の2023年5月の能登半島の地震まで何もありませんでした https://web.archive.org/web/20221202065302/https://twitter.com/earthquakejapan/status/1598359845446352896 予測で重要なのは物理的あるいは統計的に十分な根拠を示すことですが,本投稿はそうした根拠が全く無いデマで,数週間前から外れ続けている予想を当たるまで繰り返しているだけです https://megalodon.jp/2024-0218-0013-35/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1758306815811486202 https://megalodon.jp/2024-0216-0921-34/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1757774720534012178 元日の大地震発生前の予想も極めて低い値で,根拠がないので当然ですが予測能力が全くないことは明らかです https://megalodon.jp/2024-0112-1157-30/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1741117647691927851 震源を限定せず広範囲にするのも毎日投稿を繰り返すのも,まぐれ当たりを狙うデマの常套手段です https://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/010-017_40Orihara.pdf 根拠も実績も無いものを信じる意味はありません

Note Status History

createdAt timestampMillisOfFirstNonNMRStatus firstNonNMRStatus timestampMillisOfCurrentStatus currentStatus timestampMillisOfLatestNonNMRStatus mostRecentNonNMRStatus participantId
2024-02-29 05:08:12 UTC
(1709183292582)
2024-02-29 09:49:24 UTC
(1709200164973)
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL 2024-03-07 12:28:42 UTC
(1709814522945)
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL 2024-02-29 09:49:24 UTC
(1709200164973)
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL

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