Birdwatch Note
2024-02-15 04:46:10 UTC - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
日本ではいつどこで大地震がおきてもおかしくありません．予測で重要なのは物理的あるいは統計的に十分な根拠を示すことですが，本投稿はそうした根拠が全く無いデマです 1月の大地震発生前の「日本の地震リスク」は極めて低い値で，根拠がないので当然ですが予測能力が全くないことは明らかです https://megalodon.jp/2024-0112-1157-30/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1741117647691927851 大地震が100％起きると言ったときでさえ何もありませんでした https://web.archive.org/web/20221202065302/https://twitter.com/earthquakejapan/status/1598359845446352896 本投稿は既に外れた予想を当たるまで延長しているだけです https://megalodon.jp/2024-0215-0843-08/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1757090416879456438 https://megalodon.jp/2024-0212-1501-35/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1756169425953112575 想定される地震の規模を書かないのも，震源を限定せず広範囲にするのも，頻繁な投稿も，小さな地震でまぐれ当たりを稼ぐデマの常套手段です https://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/010-017_40Orihara.pdf
Written by 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA
Participant Details
Original Tweet
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All Information
- ID - 1757989657089024211
- noteId - 1757989657089024211
- participantId -
- noteAuthorParticipantId - 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA Participant Details
- createdAtMillis - 1707972370776
- tweetId - 1757975571559067949
- classification - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
- believable -
- harmful -
- validationDifficulty -
- misleadingOther - 0
- misleadingFactualError - 0
- misleadingManipulatedMedia - 0
- misleadingOutdatedInformation - 0
- misleadingMissingImportantContext - 1
- misleadingUnverifiedClaimAsFact - 1
- misleadingSatire - 0
- notMisleadingOther - 0
- notMisleadingFactuallyCorrect - 0
- notMisleadingOutdatedButNotWhenWritten - 0
- notMisleadingClearlySatire - 0
- notMisleadingPersonalOpinion - 0
- trustworthySources - 1
- summary
- 日本ではいつどこで大地震がおきてもおかしくありません．予測で重要なのは物理的あるいは統計的に十分な根拠を示すことですが，本投稿はそうした根拠が全く無いデマです 1月の大地震発生前の「日本の地震リスク」は極めて低い値で，根拠がないので当然ですが予測能力が全くないことは明らかです https://megalodon.jp/2024-0112-1157-30/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1741117647691927851 大地震が100％起きると言ったときでさえ何もありませんでした https://web.archive.org/web/20221202065302/https://twitter.com/earthquakejapan/status/1598359845446352896 本投稿は既に外れた予想を当たるまで延長しているだけです https://megalodon.jp/2024-0215-0843-08/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1757090416879456438 https://megalodon.jp/2024-0212-1501-35/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1756169425953112575 想定される地震の規模を書かないのも，震源を限定せず広範囲にするのも，頻繁な投稿も，小さな地震でまぐれ当たりを稼ぐデマの常套手段です https://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/010-017_40Orihara.pdf
Note Status History
| createdAt | timestampMillisOfFirstNonNMRStatus | firstNonNMRStatus | timestampMillisOfCurrentStatus | currentStatus | timestampMillisOfLatestNonNMRStatus | mostRecentNonNMRStatus | participantId |
| 2024-02-15 04:46:10 UTC (1707972370776) |
2024-02-15 14:25:53 UTC (1708007153659) |
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL | 2024-02-16 03:27:03 UTC (1708054023024) |
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL | 2024-02-15 14:25:53 UTC (1708007153659) |
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL |
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