Birdwatch Note
2024-02-10 05:22:38 UTC - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
日本ではいつどこで大地震がおきてもおかしくありません．予測で重要なのは物理的あるいは統計的に十分な根拠を示すことですが，本投稿はそうした根拠が全く無いデマです． 1/1の大地震発生前の「日本の地震リスク」は極めて低い値で，根拠がないので当然ですが予測能力が全くないことは明らかです．本投稿は大地震の余震（があることは常識）でまぐれ当たりを稼ぐ小細工に過ぎません． https://megalodon.jp/2024-0112-1157-30/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1741117647691927851 大地震が100％起きると言ったときも何もありませんでした https://web.archive.org/web/20221202065302/https://twitter.com/earthquakejapan/status/1598359845446352896 大地震は当たらずM5程度以下の小さな地震が当たって見えるのは，頻度が多いので下手な鉄砲も数撃ちゃ当たるというだけのことです https://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/010-017_40Orihara.pdf
Written by 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA
Participant Details
Original Tweet
Tweet embedding is no longer reliably available, due to the platform's instability (in terms of both technology and policy). If the Tweet still exists, you can view it here: https://twitter.com/foo_bar/status/1756169425953112575
Please note, though, that you may need to have your own Twitter account to access that page. I am currently exploring options for archiving Tweet data in a post-API context.
All Information
- ID - 1756186893291811180
- noteId - 1756186893291811180
- participantId -
- noteAuthorParticipantId - 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA Participant Details
- createdAtMillis - 1707542558392
- tweetId - 1756169425953112575
- classification - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
- believable -
- harmful -
- validationDifficulty -
- misleadingOther - 0
- misleadingFactualError - 0
- misleadingManipulatedMedia - 0
- misleadingOutdatedInformation - 0
- misleadingMissingImportantContext - 1
- misleadingUnverifiedClaimAsFact - 1
- misleadingSatire - 0
- notMisleadingOther - 0
- notMisleadingFactuallyCorrect - 0
- notMisleadingOutdatedButNotWhenWritten - 0
- notMisleadingClearlySatire - 0
- notMisleadingPersonalOpinion - 0
- trustworthySources - 1
- summary
- 日本ではいつどこで大地震がおきてもおかしくありません．予測で重要なのは物理的あるいは統計的に十分な根拠を示すことですが，本投稿はそうした根拠が全く無いデマです． 1/1の大地震発生前の「日本の地震リスク」は極めて低い値で，根拠がないので当然ですが予測能力が全くないことは明らかです．本投稿は大地震の余震（があることは常識）でまぐれ当たりを稼ぐ小細工に過ぎません． https://megalodon.jp/2024-0112-1157-30/https://twitter.com:443/earthquakejapan/status/1741117647691927851 大地震が100％起きると言ったときも何もありませんでした https://web.archive.org/web/20221202065302/https://twitter.com/earthquakejapan/status/1598359845446352896 大地震は当たらずM5程度以下の小さな地震が当たって見えるのは，頻度が多いので下手な鉄砲も数撃ちゃ当たるというだけのことです https://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/010-017_40Orihara.pdf
Note Status History
| createdAt | timestampMillisOfFirstNonNMRStatus | firstNonNMRStatus | timestampMillisOfCurrentStatus | currentStatus | timestampMillisOfLatestNonNMRStatus | mostRecentNonNMRStatus | participantId |
| 2024-02-10 05:22:38 UTC (1707542558392) |
2024-02-10 11:33:08 UTC (1707564788725) |
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL | 2024-02-11 04:10:00 UTC (1707624600478) |
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL | 2024-02-10 11:33:08 UTC (1707564788725) |
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL |
Note Ratings
| rated at | rated by | |
| 2024-02-10 16:30:43 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 15:35:07 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 14:01:14 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 13:51:49 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 13:40:23 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 13:34:43 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 13:34:35 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 09:42:14 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 06:45:10 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 06:07:25 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 05:59:07 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 05:34:00 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 03:04:46 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 03:03:25 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 02:58:17 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 02:03:21 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 01:55:31 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 01:53:09 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 01:45:36 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 01:38:23 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 01:33:03 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 01:30:11 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 01:25:05 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 01:19:19 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 01:11:44 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 01:05:12 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 01:02:24 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 00:54:14 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 00:53:44 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 00:50:59 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 00:50:02 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 00:42:01 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 00:40:56 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 00:40:18 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 00:38:39 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 00:33:48 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 00:29:53 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 00:29:33 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 00:28:04 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 00:27:51 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 00:18:31 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 00:16:34 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 00:15:04 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 00:08:23 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 00:06:23 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 00:00:38 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-09 23:58:13 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-09 23:57:58 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-09 23:52:12 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-09 23:47:06 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-09 23:46:16 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-09 23:45:49 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-09 23:45:14 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-09 23:38:17 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-09 23:38:08 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-09 23:37:01 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-09 23:36:13 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-09 23:35:58 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-09 23:32:31 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-09 23:27:09 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-11 02:47:47 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-11 02:30:48 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 22:50:49 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-11 06:01:07 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 17:43:31 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 13:49:25 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 03:10:38 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 02:44:07 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 02:33:46 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 00:59:10 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 00:49:52 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 00:26:59 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 00:20:58 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 00:05:06 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 00:02:44 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-09 23:58:54 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-09 23:53:45 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-09 23:50:00 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-09 23:49:49 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-09 23:42:40 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-09 23:41:32 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-09 23:41:22 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-09 23:39:58 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-09 23:39:48 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-02-10 14:28:58 -0600 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-03-06 19:49:02 -0600 | Rating Details |