Birdwatch Note
2023-12-25 05:14:06 UTC - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
日本ではいつどこで大地震がおきてもおかしくありません．予測で重要なのは物理的あるいは統計的に十分な根拠を示すことですが，本投稿はそうした根拠が全く無いデマに過ぎません． 中小地震はまぐれ当たりしますが大地震が起きるとの主張に対して該当する地震は発生せず， https://twitter.com/earthquakejapan/status/1738008517569814840 https://twitter.com/earthquakejapan/status/1732960138246459799 過去に100%起きると言ったときですら何もありませんでした． https://twitter.com/earthquakejapan/status/1598359845446352896q これは規模が大きいと発生頻度が少なくなる（GR則：https://www.kyoshin.bosai.go.jp/kyoshin/gk/publication/1/I-3.2.4.html） ことでまぐれ当たりしにくくなるためです． 広範囲を対象としたり毎日投稿したりするのは，試行回数を増やしてまぐれ当たりを稼ぐデマの常套手段です． http://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/010-017_40Orihara.pdf
Written by 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA
Participant Details
Original Tweet
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All Information
- ID - 1739152516406018489
- noteId - 1739152516406018489
- participantId -
- noteAuthorParticipantId - 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA Participant Details
- createdAtMillis - 1703481246458
- tweetId - 1739123919481639269
- classification - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
- believable -
- harmful -
- validationDifficulty -
- misleadingOther - 0
- misleadingFactualError - 0
- misleadingManipulatedMedia - 0
- misleadingOutdatedInformation - 0
- misleadingMissingImportantContext - 1
- misleadingUnverifiedClaimAsFact - 0
- misleadingSatire - 0
- notMisleadingOther - 0
- notMisleadingFactuallyCorrect - 0
- notMisleadingOutdatedButNotWhenWritten - 0
- notMisleadingClearlySatire - 0
- notMisleadingPersonalOpinion - 0
- trustworthySources - 1
- summary
- 日本ではいつどこで大地震がおきてもおかしくありません．予測で重要なのは物理的あるいは統計的に十分な根拠を示すことですが，本投稿はそうした根拠が全く無いデマに過ぎません． 中小地震はまぐれ当たりしますが大地震が起きるとの主張に対して該当する地震は発生せず， https://twitter.com/earthquakejapan/status/1738008517569814840 https://twitter.com/earthquakejapan/status/1732960138246459799 過去に100%起きると言ったときですら何もありませんでした． https://twitter.com/earthquakejapan/status/1598359845446352896q これは規模が大きいと発生頻度が少なくなる（GR則：https://www.kyoshin.bosai.go.jp/kyoshin/gk/publication/1/I-3.2.4.html） ことでまぐれ当たりしにくくなるためです． 広範囲を対象としたり毎日投稿したりするのは，試行回数を増やしてまぐれ当たりを稼ぐデマの常套手段です． http://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/010-017_40Orihara.pdf
Note Status History
| createdAt | timestampMillisOfFirstNonNMRStatus | firstNonNMRStatus | timestampMillisOfCurrentStatus | currentStatus | timestampMillisOfLatestNonNMRStatus | mostRecentNonNMRStatus | participantId |
| 2023-12-25 05:14:06 UTC (1703481246458) |
2023-12-25 12:57:21 UTC (1703509041918) |
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL | 2023-12-26 02:01:21 UTC (1703556081666) |
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL | 2023-12-25 12:57:21 UTC (1703509041918) |
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL |
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