Birdwatch Note
2023-11-21 02:38:59 UTC - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
投稿者が感染率と呼んで用いている値は実際は検査陽性数の事です(↓に表中のチェコの例 https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-02-01..2021-12-04&facet=none&country=CZE~LTU&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false が、西浦氏の論文が感染と定義しているのは陽性数ではなく真の感染率です(下記論文の3Pの最初にそれを陽性の4倍と仮定しています https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-44942-6.pdf 故に基本的な所でこの投稿は西浦氏論文への批判になっていません。 例えばこの表の国のチェコは陽性数では20年秋の時点で5%程です↓ https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-01..2021-12-04&facet=none&country=CZE~LTU&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false がチェコの新型コロナ抗体保持率は20年秋に既に28%(21年3月に未接種者が51%)でした↓ https://www.nature.com/articles/s43856-022-00080-0 このように検査陽性数と実際の感染率は違い後者が5割以上というのは他国では普通にみられていた事に注意が必要です
Written by F4D2E4CA66E08B99BDDE8328BBF4C2313B853B3595C8AC38600E463328C72D9D
Participant Details
Original Tweet
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All Information
- ID - 1726792293569757681
- noteId - 1726792293569757681
- participantId -
- noteAuthorParticipantId - F4D2E4CA66E08B99BDDE8328BBF4C2313B853B3595C8AC38600E463328C72D9D Participant Details
- createdAtMillis - 1700534339693
- tweetId - 1726733665475207434
- classification - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
- believable -
- harmful -
- validationDifficulty -
- misleadingOther - 0
- misleadingFactualError - 1
- misleadingManipulatedMedia - 1
- misleadingOutdatedInformation - 0
- misleadingMissingImportantContext - 1
- misleadingUnverifiedClaimAsFact - 1
- misleadingSatire - 0
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- notMisleadingClearlySatire - 0
- notMisleadingPersonalOpinion - 0
- trustworthySources - 1
- summary
- 投稿者が感染率と呼んで用いている値は実際は検査陽性数の事です(↓に表中のチェコの例 https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-02-01..2021-12-04&facet=none&country=CZE~LTU&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false が、西浦氏の論文が感染と定義しているのは陽性数ではなく真の感染率です(下記論文の3Pの最初にそれを陽性の4倍と仮定しています https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-44942-6.pdf 故に基本的な所でこの投稿は西浦氏論文への批判になっていません。 例えばこの表の国のチェコは陽性数では20年秋の時点で5%程です↓ https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-01..2021-12-04&facet=none&country=CZE~LTU&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false がチェコの新型コロナ抗体保持率は20年秋に既に28%(21年3月に未接種者が51%)でした↓ https://www.nature.com/articles/s43856-022-00080-0 このように検査陽性数と実際の感染率は違い後者が5割以上というのは他国では普通にみられていた事に注意が必要です
Note Status History
| createdAt | timestampMillisOfFirstNonNMRStatus | firstNonNMRStatus | timestampMillisOfCurrentStatus | currentStatus | timestampMillisOfLatestNonNMRStatus | mostRecentNonNMRStatus | participantId |
| 2023-11-21 02:38:59 UTC (1700534339693) |
2023-11-21 09:32:01 UTC (1700559121693) |
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL | 2023-11-22 03:07:15 UTC (1700622435922) |
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL | 2023-11-21 09:32:01 UTC (1700559121693) |
CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL |
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