Birdwatch Note
2023-11-20 14:27:11 UTC - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
当該論文は一定の仮定の元に当日の実測値から翌日までの変化量を予測するモデルを立て、それよる予測結果と現実の一致を確認することでその信頼性を検証した後に、接種状況が現実と違う場合を予測しています。モデルに大きな間違いがあれば、係数をいくら操作しても現実に良く一致させることは困難であり、ある程度の誤差を伴うものの、科学ではよく用いられる手法です https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-44942-6 同様の手法の他論文でも本論文と矛盾しない結果が導かれています https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00320-6 時系列的相関からワクチンは超過死亡の原因とは言えず、効果の遅延を考慮するとむしろワクチンの効果を示す可能性があります https://exdeaths-japan.org/graph/weekly/ https://web.sapmed.ac.jp/canmol/coronavirus/japan_estimate.html https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/covid-19/open-data.html https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/vaccine_sesshujisseki.html https://info.vrs.digital.go.jp/dashboard https://medicalfacts.info/infect.rb?c=Japan&new_cases_smoothed=true&new_deaths_smoothed=true&new_vaccinations_smoothed=true&excess_mortality=true&two=true&l=ja&i=true&cfrom=2021-01-01 https://togetter.com/li/2131189
Written by EE7192EF0B1C47D8A3430C3E070DA2A0BFAA58717F9133404318E9D7666B1A00
Participant Details
Original Tweet
Tweet embedding is no longer reliably available, due to the platform's instability (in terms of both technology and policy). If the Tweet still exists, you can view it here: https://twitter.com/foo_bar/status/1726548361908822235
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All Information
- ID - 1726608127498572030
- noteId - 1726608127498572030
- participantId -
- noteAuthorParticipantId - EE7192EF0B1C47D8A3430C3E070DA2A0BFAA58717F9133404318E9D7666B1A00 Participant Details
- createdAtMillis - 1700490431083
- tweetId - 1726548361908822235
- classification - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
- believable -
- harmful -
- validationDifficulty -
- misleadingOther - 0
- misleadingFactualError - 1
- misleadingManipulatedMedia - 0
- misleadingOutdatedInformation - 0
- misleadingMissingImportantContext - 1
- misleadingUnverifiedClaimAsFact - 1
- misleadingSatire - 0
- notMisleadingOther - 0
- notMisleadingFactuallyCorrect - 0
- notMisleadingOutdatedButNotWhenWritten - 0
- notMisleadingClearlySatire - 0
- notMisleadingPersonalOpinion - 0
- trustworthySources - 1
- summary
- 当該論文は一定の仮定の元に当日の実測値から翌日までの変化量を予測するモデルを立て、それよる予測結果と現実の一致を確認することでその信頼性を検証した後に、接種状況が現実と違う場合を予測しています。モデルに大きな間違いがあれば、係数をいくら操作しても現実に良く一致させることは困難であり、ある程度の誤差を伴うものの、科学ではよく用いられる手法です https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-44942-6 同様の手法の他論文でも本論文と矛盾しない結果が導かれています https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00320-6 時系列的相関からワクチンは超過死亡の原因とは言えず、効果の遅延を考慮するとむしろワクチンの効果を示す可能性があります https://exdeaths-japan.org/graph/weekly/ https://web.sapmed.ac.jp/canmol/coronavirus/japan_estimate.html https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/covid-19/open-data.html https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/vaccine_sesshujisseki.html https://info.vrs.digital.go.jp/dashboard https://medicalfacts.info/infect.rb?c=Japan&new_cases_smoothed=true&new_deaths_smoothed=true&new_vaccinations_smoothed=true&excess_mortality=true&two=true&l=ja&i=true&cfrom=2021-01-01 https://togetter.com/li/2131189
Note Status History
| createdAt | timestampMillisOfFirstNonNMRStatus | firstNonNMRStatus | timestampMillisOfCurrentStatus | currentStatus | timestampMillisOfLatestNonNMRStatus | mostRecentNonNMRStatus | participantId |
| 2023-11-20 14:27:11 UTC (1700490431083) |
1969-12-31 23:59:59 UTC (-1) |
2023-11-21 04:11:11 UTC (1700539871995) |
NEEDS_MORE_RATINGS | 1969-12-31 23:59:59 UTC (-1) |
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