Birdwatch Archive

Birdwatch Note

2023-10-22 13:25:45 UTC - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING

数日内にM6~7との主張には何ら根拠がありません． 巨大地震の前に電離層に変動が見られることは報告されています（下記PDF15ページ以降）． しかし同程度の変動は巨大地震が無いときにも頻繁に発生しており，TECの状態を見て地震が起きる/起きないを予想することはできないというのが現在分かっていることです． https://cais.gsi.go.jp/YOCHIREN/sympo/kicho1.pdf 先行研究を覆す証拠を示していないため主張に根拠がありません．震源位置を明確にしない点や毎日のようにこうした投稿をする点は以下の文献（p.13~）にある「根拠のない予想を当たっているように見せかけるトリック」の典型例です． http://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/010-017_40Orihara.pdf

Written by 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA
Participant Details

Original Tweet

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All Information

  • ID - 1716083422685450566
  • noteId - 1716083422685450566
  • participantId -
  • noteAuthorParticipantId - 9D4E96D5CE55117E60D202B752CCDEBB7533CB601667FD62DAE58FEB055973AA Participant Details
  • createdAtMillis - 1697981145914
  • tweetId - 1716062248047976516
  • classification - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
  • believable -
  • harmful -
  • validationDifficulty -
  • misleadingOther - 0
  • misleadingFactualError - 0
  • misleadingManipulatedMedia - 0
  • misleadingOutdatedInformation - 0
  • misleadingMissingImportantContext - 1
  • misleadingUnverifiedClaimAsFact - 1
  • misleadingSatire - 0
  • notMisleadingOther - 0
  • notMisleadingFactuallyCorrect - 0
  • notMisleadingOutdatedButNotWhenWritten - 0
  • notMisleadingClearlySatire - 0
  • notMisleadingPersonalOpinion - 0
  • trustworthySources - 1
  • summary
    • 数日内にM6~7との主張には何ら根拠がありません． 巨大地震の前に電離層に変動が見られることは報告されています（下記PDF15ページ以降）． しかし同程度の変動は巨大地震が無いときにも頻繁に発生しており，TECの状態を見て地震が起きる/起きないを予想することはできないというのが現在分かっていることです． https://cais.gsi.go.jp/YOCHIREN/sympo/kicho1.pdf 先行研究を覆す証拠を示していないため主張に根拠がありません．震源位置を明確にしない点や毎日のようにこうした投稿をする点は以下の文献（p.13~）にある「根拠のない予想を当たっているように見せかけるトリック」の典型例です． http://www.scc.u-tokai.ac.jp/iord/bulletin/files_for_bulletin/010-017_40Orihara.pdf

Note Status History

createdAt timestampMillisOfFirstNonNMRStatus firstNonNMRStatus timestampMillisOfCurrentStatus currentStatus timestampMillisOfLatestNonNMRStatus mostRecentNonNMRStatus participantId
2023-10-22 13:25:45 UTC
(1697981145914)		 2023-10-22 17:37:29 UTC
(1697996249315)		 CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL 2023-10-23 04:39:02 UTC
(1698035942538)		 CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL 2023-10-22 17:37:29 UTC
(1697996249315)		 CURRENTLY_RATED_HELPFUL

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