Birdwatch Archive

Birdwatch Note

2023-04-25 14:04:21 UTC - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING

There is no scientific basis for earthquake prediction. There's always a chance for quakes in areas with active faults, but specific forecasts perform no better than random guessing. https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-you-predict-earthquakes https://scienceexchange.caltech.edu/topics/earthquakes/earthquakes-probabilities https://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2019/predicting-next-big-earthquake/ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00685-y https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/srl/article/89/2A/577/525827/Do-Large-Magnitude-8-Global-Earthquakes-Occur-on critique of Hoogerbeets's methods https://skeptoid.com/episodes/4873 Fact-checks of similar claims https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-earthquake-prediction-262451352553 https://www.npr.org/2023/02/07/1154893886/earthquake-prediction-turkey-usgs https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/can-you-predict-an-earthquake/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/05/28/massive-california-earthquake-predicted-for-today/ https://slate.com/technology/2015/05/planetary-alignment-no-it-won-t-cause-an-earthquake.html https://gizmodo.com/will-a-planetary-alignment-cause-a-9-8-earthquake-this-1706933982 https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2018/01/man-s-huge-quake-prediction-is-fearmongering-geonet.html https://twitter.com/bwcphd/status/1633897308499902464 https://twitter.com/PierreSeismo/status/1634593771731189760 https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.11802

Written by AFC5C07D009FE4C54C28253564AB95C4ACD4F3E1BB017002587865A55AE6ACDE
Participant Details

All Information

• ID - 1650863319207772166
• noteId - 1650863319207772166
• participantId -
• noteAuthorParticipantId - AFC5C07D009FE4C54C28253564AB95C4ACD4F3E1BB017002587865A55AE6ACDE Participant Details
• createdAtMillis - 1682431461514
• tweetId - 1650015559344332800
• classification - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
• believable -
• harmful -
• validationDifficulty -
• misleadingOther - 0
• misleadingFactualError - 0
• misleadingManipulatedMedia - 0
• misleadingOutdatedInformation - 0
• misleadingMissingImportantContext - 0
• misleadingUnverifiedClaimAsFact - 1
• misleadingSatire - 0
• notMisleadingOther - 0
• notMisleadingFactuallyCorrect - 0
• notMisleadingOutdatedButNotWhenWritten - 0
• notMisleadingClearlySatire - 0
• notMisleadingPersonalOpinion - 0
• trustworthySources - 1
• summary
• There is no scientific basis for earthquake prediction. There's always a chance for quakes in areas with active faults, but specific forecasts perform no better than random guessing. https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-you-predict-earthquakes https://scienceexchange.caltech.edu/topics/earthquakes/earthquakes-probabilities https://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2019/predicting-next-big-earthquake/ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00685-y https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/srl/article/89/2A/577/525827/Do-Large-Magnitude-8-Global-Earthquakes-Occur-on critique of Hoogerbeets's methods https://skeptoid.com/episodes/4873 Fact-checks of similar claims https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-earthquake-prediction-262451352553 https://www.npr.org/2023/02/07/1154893886/earthquake-prediction-turkey-usgs https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/can-you-predict-an-earthquake/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/05/28/massive-california-earthquake-predicted-for-today/ https://slate.com/technology/2015/05/planetary-alignment-no-it-won-t-cause-an-earthquake.html https://gizmodo.com/will-a-planetary-alignment-cause-a-9-8-earthquake-this-1706933982 https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2018/01/man-s-huge-quake-prediction-is-fearmongering-geonet.html https://twitter.com/bwcphd/status/1633897308499902464 https://twitter.com/PierreSeismo/status/1634593771731189760 https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.11802